Saturday, 22 November 2008

Global Economic re-Boot

G'day dude,

I remember a little while back, talking about 'global change', that's not just global climate change, global economic shake-up – All kinds of systems. We are all more connected than ever before. This is a social, physical, technological, logistical, environmental and economic fact of life now, not an esoteric wisdom. It is simple to detect evidence for this now, from Wall St to Struggle St.

"Organisations of the future are likely to be vertically disaggregated: functions typically encompassed within a single organisation will instead be performed in independent organisations. The functions of product design and development, manufacturing, and distribution ... will be brought together and held in temporary alignment by a variety of market mechanisms." [1] (emphasis added).

I deeply love chatting and investigating the happenings that explain such a 'coming feature' of the world's future. I find that many less interested in what works, and more committed to defending personal beliefs. Some fine examples will be collecting their (metaphorical) cups of soup in London (Barcelona), Singapore, New York (Fort Lauderdale), etc. over the next few years. That's why I am writing to you ~ You are canny, you see a shift too, or parts of the whole. You're special.

Nominally my figuring is that the current public global events are similar to growing pains for structures of socialisation, in the widest sense. Previously, say after the 'Great Depression' there were adjustments and people more or less resumed business as usual with the new economics (Keynes). Until now.

This time, the economics are stable, and the people are different. Even 'under classes' aspires to wealth and improvement. The Keynesian 'reasoning man' is supplanted by Shaw's [2] unreasonable man ...

"A reasonable man. "The reasonable man adapts himself to the conditions that surround him... The unreasonable man adapts surrounding conditions to himself... All progress depends on the unreasonable man." [3]

On a fundamental level humans, in general, have been manufacturing 'unreasonable people'[3] with expectations. It is worth considering the fanciful metaphor of: 'A Knight's Tale' (2001) movie, where the son of a Middle Ages' freeman attains the rank of Knight. At that time any commoner with a sword could be executed in the street.

At times of great change, it is important to ask yourself, "Is this a cyclic thing? Or, is it a structural change?" Is the global society simply having a re-boot or is it installing a new operating system?

My mind considers that the world community is building a new structure. Such a process can take many years to organise itself and settled into stable patterns. We can't say if the final relationship will be as Miles & Snow [1] divine or not. Perhaps a process of aggregation will find us in a world dominated by a few large corporations. What is true now, is that your customers' world and hence; your world is in constant change and keeping pace with change means you are a only little behind the game.

How do we make this observation work for you? How do you make money from this situation? Answer: we make-up guidelines to cover the next 12–15 years. Let's begin with your strengths – If you will do only one thing for the next 15 years, begin with that one thing. Then you can look at how the changes of the influence your relationship with the people who want to pay you for what you do. One of your rules will be the time-horizon to work in ahead of now, within your endeavour: 3 months, 8 months, one or two years? Create a strategy to match your technology needs with the pace of the changes around you.

Considering the current environment as an upgrade, rather than a re-boot is a very powerful way to view current circumstances. If the times are not a-changing, that's OK too because you will walk away with a framework to thrive in dynamic marketplaces. There are always dynamic marketplaces.

Aloha,
William.
Ask me about Marketing Technology ...
References ...
  1. Miles, Raymond E. & Snow, Charles C. (1984) "Fit, Failure and the Hall of Fame", California Management Review. Berkeley: Spring 1984. v.26, i.3; p.10 (19).
  2. Keynes, John Maynard (1883-1946)
  3. Shaw, George Bernard (1856-1950)
  4. Kelly, Kevin (1997), "Twelve Principles of the Network Economy", Wired Magazine

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